Abstract

• In March 2022, Fantom ranked among the top five public chains, with a peak Total Value Locked (TVL) of nearly $8 billion, approximately eight times Sonic’s current peak.

• Within three months of its mainnet launch, Sonic achieved nearly 40-fold exponential TVL growth, reaching close to $1 billion. It now ranks 12th among public chains by TVL, with a market share of 1.07%.

• Sonic’s transaction activity (weekly transaction volume at about 51% of Fantom’s peak) and DEX trading volume (approximately 16.9% of Fantom’s peak, ranking 7th among public chains) are still in early stages. User interaction frequency and trading depth on-chain remain areas for improvement.
• During its peak, Fantom’s top four native protocols collectively held nearly 65% of the chain’s TVL. In contrast, Sonic currently relies mainly on cross-chain protocols like Aave and Silo. Its native ecosystem is still developing, and greater investment is needed in protocol diversity and core project incubation.
• Sonic adopts a “triangular offensive” model (Lombard, Ether.fi, and Rings), with restaking and stablecoins as dual growth drivers. Within three months, the market capitalization of Sonic-based stablecoins has reached $500 million. Since early 2025, Sonic has attracted $1.3 billion in net capital inflows, ranking second among public chains during this period, showing strong capital absorption capacity (as of April 7, 2025).

• $FTM once achieved a 190x price increase, whereas $S has only seen a peak increase of about 2x recently. This significantly underperforms Fantom’s previous cycle, highlighting the need to improve incentive mechanisms.
• Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Sonic scored 6.5 out of 10) and a logistic regression model (replication success probability of 68.2 percent), Sonic demonstrates moderate potential to recreate Fantom’s peak performance under current variables.

• Monte Carlo simulations show that if capital inflows double in a bull market scenario, the probability of successful replication rises to 82 percent. In neutral scenarios, the likelihood is between 65 and 70 percent, while in a pessimistic scenario (with capital outflows), the probability drops to only 35 percent. Market trajectory will depend on sustained capital inflow and the pace of ecosystem development.
  
  
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