Bitcoin: Is the 4-Year Cycle Coming to an End or Repeating Again?

The cryptocurrency market is entering a heated debate about the future of Bitcoin: Will the largest digital currency in the world continue to follow the "4-year cycle" associated with halving events, or has it entered a new era? The history and questions about the 4-year cycle In the past, Bitcoin has often experienced strong growth following each halving, reaching peak prices the following year, then dropping 70–80% the year after. However, this pattern may be breaking. Last year, Bitcoin did something unprecedented: it reached a new peak before the halving occurred, driven by the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US in January 2024. ETF – A game-changing turning point Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that investors through ETFs bring more stability to the market. "More stable investors lead to more stable prices," he said, emphasizing that the capital flows from ETFs have opened the door for millions of USD in institutional funds to flow into Bitcoin – these investors typically have a long-term strategy and are less affected by short-term volatility. The reality proves the influence of ETFs: just a few months after their launch, Bitcoin set a new record and continued to rise sharply thanks to the victory of U.S. President Donald Trump – a figure with a crypto-friendly stance. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around 115,492 USD, up over 22% since the beginning of the year, and just established a peak of 124,128 USD on August 14. The maturity of the market Not only the flow of ETF capital, the participation of large institutions such as Harvard University and Goldman Sachs through this investment channel shows that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a part of the global financial system. André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, believes that: "The impact from halving is gradually decreasing, while macro factors and investment demand are becoming increasingly important." But will the past repeat itself? Not everyone agrees with the viewpoint that "the 4-year cycle is dead." A recent report from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin's current price patterns are quite similar to previous cycles (2015–2018, 2018–2022). This report also highlights the slowdown of new capital inflows and that many long-term investors have taken profits at levels similar to previous euphoric phases – a sign that the market may have entered the final stage of the bullish cycle. Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin mining company Luxor, commented: "Every time we think that 'this time will be different,' the market proves the opposite: 'No, this time is still the same.'" Conclusion: Where will Bitcoin go? Bitcoin is currently at an unprecedented level: deeply integrated into the traditional financial system, possessing a massive amount of institutional capital, yet still facing the unchanging psychological market laws. Will ETFs and macro factors be enough to break the "4-year cycle curse," or will history repeat itself once again? The answer will only come with time – and with Bitcoin, "surprises" are always the only certainty.