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What is the real driving force behind this round of Ethereum pump?
Author: Haotian
The recent surge in Ethereum $ETH has led many to question whether it is related to the recent Pectra upgrade. The answer may not be.
The Pectra upgrade is more like the "finishing touches" of the Cancun upgrade, mainly involving some underlying optimizations and detail improvements, rather than breakthrough technological innovations.
From a technical perspective, the four EIPs included in the Pectra upgrade all point in the same direction: making Ethereum operate more stable and efficient. The status expiration standardization of EIP-7044, the redefinition of fuel limits in EIP-7524, the transaction pipeline optimization of EIP-7697, and the difficulty adjustment improvements of EIP-6789—these are all typical "patch-up" upgrades that address some marginal issues left by the Cancun upgrade.
The logic that truly determines the price trend of Ethereum this time is actually the "value restoration" after being excessively FUDed.
In the past few months, Ethereum has indeed gone through a round of "focused fire" questioning: the dispersion of layer 2 liquidity has been amplified into ecological division, the performance comparison with Solana has been interpreted as a failure of the technical route, and the expansion of various layer 2 ecological applications has not met expectations. Additionally, the stacking of technical narratives such as Restaking, modularization, and zk has not been able to capture value, and so on.
While all the attention is focused on the issues surrounding Ethereum, some key facts are being overlooked: the total locked value in DeFi remains stable at $119B, the Cancun upgrade has significantly reduced layer 2 costs, ETF inflows continue to strengthen, and new narratives such as RWA and PayFi are mainly developing within the Ethereum ecosystem.
The fundamentals of Ethereum are not as bad as the market sentiment reflects.
Institutional investors have clearly seen through this emotional imbalance. The most typical example is the huge purchase of 242,652 ETH by Abraxas Capital (approximately $561 million). Additionally, during the period from May 9 to 14, large ETH transfers (greater than $1M) also significantly increased, and the ETH balances of institutional-level wallet addresses showed a notable increase, all of which indicate a planned large-scale accumulation by institutions.
So, if we have to find a logic for this round of Ethereum's rise: Ethereum has been overly FUDed, needing to rediscover its existing value, and institutions took the opportunity to buy the dip first?