Golden cross pattern trap after $110,000? Bitcoin market outlook and holdings advice

Author: 𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Everyone believes that $140,000 is the next target, but things won't develop like that.

After studying all historical scenarios and market data, why do I think Bitcoin is about to decline slightly?

! [The Golden Fork Trap After $110,000?] Bitcoin outlook and position recommendations](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-9152145765a303fe3423be7fa0cb1763)

Is a golden cross a blessing or a curse?

A golden cross refers to the technical indicator pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. In all technical analysis, this is usually seen as a buy signal or bullish indicator.

But what if I tell you that the situation is not that simple, and a golden cross might actually lead to a crash?

Let me explain to everyone.

Yes, fundamentally speaking, the emergence of a golden cross indicates that short-term momentum is surpassing long-term momentum (usually presenting a bullish trend).

But historical data shows that every time a golden cross forms, Bitcoin always follows with a sharp drop of 10%. After this drop, Bitcoin then rebounds strongly and sets a new historical high again.

Let's delve into specific cases:

• In February 2021, after the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average, it plummeted by 10% within 7 days.
• In March 2024, Bitcoin plummeted 11% before a violent surge to a new high.

It has been proven that the occurrence of a golden cross is merely the ultimate method of washing out before the main force raises the price, used to shake off floating capital (weak hands and retail investors), thus promoting a real price breakthrough.

Everything became clear, and it was this breakthrough that triggered a large-scale influx of capital chasing the rise.

Those who left the market due to FOMO are re-entering, which in turn fuels an even stronger upward trend.

This is the mechanism of the golden cross pattern.

This week, Bitcoin experienced a correction of about 8%, which is consistent with past trends. A rebound has already occurred, indicating strong buying interest around the $104,000 to $105,000 range.

On the other hand, it is evident that the upward momentum above $110,000 has exhausted.

(This will lead to the phenomenon of "news overconsumption", where positive news does not trigger any reaction )

What will the subsequent trend of ### be?

If we can hold the $105,000 mark (which we are very likely to achieve), it will directly target the $150,000 barrier, repeating the golden cross pattern.

If it breaks below the $100,000 mark, it is expected to slightly pull back to the range of $90,000 to $95,000.

! [The Golden Fork Trap After $110,000?] Bitcoin outlook and position recommendations](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-dc73b50dc9fa636cc9b81a7a7b4f940b)

If you haven't taken a position yet, now is a good time to enter the market; in the short term, I am strongly bullish.

At the same time, I am in a more risk-averse state: I only hold strong blue-chip coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and selectively choose a few altcoins with investment value, such as Cookie, W, and IOTA.

If you already have a position that makes you unsure whether to sell or add to it, stick to your strategy.