Bitcoin breaks through $106,000: Is this market trend really a flash in the pan?

Just when the market generally thought that Crypto Assets were in a short-term fluctuation, Bitcoin surged past $106,000, with a daily rise of 5%, once again setting a new recent high. As soon as the news broke, traders exploded with excitement: "Is this really going to To da moon?"

But the real market trend is never just ignited by a single piece of news; it is the result of the resonance of macro expectations + technical confirmation + capital structure. This rise is no exception.

This wave of rise is not just the stimulant brought by the news.

The recent rise in Bitcoin is a typical market driven by macro factors combined with technical breakthroughs. Let's break down the logical chain of the market:

The transmission path of "news → sentiment → expectations → asset prices" is not unfamiliar in historical market trends. We have seen similar scenarios in 2020 and 2022—only the underlying variables were different, while the script of sentiment was strikingly similar.

History tells us: Macroeconomic-driven reversals are not a first time.

You may ask: can a "Middle East ceasefire agreement" really cause Bitcoin to rise by 5% and break through a key threshold? Is the market overreacting? In fact, if you look back at history, every major market movement has never been solely driven by "news" but rather by the collective shift in market expectations for the future.

Case 1: In March 2020, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE, igniting a long-term bull market in Crypto Assets.

In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic caused a global market crash, the Federal Reserve implemented unprecedented liquidity easing policies:

On March 15, launched a $700 billion asset purchase program;

On March 23, announced unlimited QE - that is, a commitment to asset purchases without limits.

At that time, Bitcoin fell to a stage low of $3,858, but since then it has rebounded all the way, eventually reaching a historical high of $69,000 in November 2021, a rise of nearly 1700%.

What are the similarities between this time and the 2025 Middle East ceasefire market?

Although 2020 was a solid policy implementation, and now it is just "expectation warming up," the intensity of the two is different, but the market logic is consistent: liquidity expectations rise, and risk assets rise first out of respect. Of course, expecting Bitcoin to replicate the kind of tenfold surge seen in 2020 is indeed a bit fantastical. However, under the current structure of "emotional repair + capital inflow," a bullish approach remains to follow the trend.

Case 2: Early 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War - Brief Rebound, Quick Reversal

In February 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war triggered market panic, with Bitcoin briefly falling from $39,000 to $35,000. Subsequently, the market began to assess the war's impact on global inflation, and risk appetite temporarily rebounded, with Bitcoin rebounding to around $42,000 in March. However, the good times did not last long:

Starting in April, the Federal Reserve signals aggressive interest rate hikes;

In May, the LUNA/UST crash triggered systemic panic;

Bitcoin price plummeted to $26,000 in May, and sentiment quickly turned to panic.

This history serves as a warning: even if geopolitical tensions ease and bring about a short-term rebound, if macro policies and industry risks do not align, it will be difficult for the market to sustain.

This is exactly the key point we want to emphasize: a rebound can start with emotions, but whether it can go far depends on structural support.

The technical aspect is not a supporting role, but a "verifier".

Macroeconomic expectations can ignite market sentiment, but for the market to truly emerge, the technical aspects must "keep up" with the sentiment. From the current BTC trend, the technical aspects are gradually completing the confirmation and relay after the breakout:

In the 1-hour chart, after the BTC price broke through the 105,000 USD round number, a large bullish candlestick appeared, followed by a long upper shadow on the candlestick, indicating an increase in short-term selling pressure.

The 1-hour level DIF crosses above the DEA, the histogram expands, and the momentum release is clear.

The 1-hour RSI has fallen from overbought to 65, but still maintains a strong structure.

With the custom indicator feature of AiCoin, I have plotted the EMA7/30/120 respectively. The BTC price has stabilized above the EMA7, and the arrangement of EMA7/30/120 shows a typical bullish pattern (EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120) trend.

The main force's intention to actively accumulate is clear, with buy transactions far exceeding sell transactions, and the average purchase price significantly higher than the average selling price, indicating that the main force is actively chasing prices to accumulate; at the same time, the chip range is concentrated above 102K, which becomes a key support level. If it stabilizes after a subsequent pullback, it may serve as the foundation for the next wave of upward movement.

Overall, although there is still selling pressure in the short term, the mid-term trend, structure, and volume coordination are good, providing a technical basis for supporting the price to rise further.

It's not a carnival, but the beginning of structural repair.

From the macro perspective to the technical level, what we see is a collaborative performance of expectation repair + trend confirmation:

Geopolitical tensions ease + Interest rate cut expectations rise → Triggering capital inflow;

Technical structure has completed the breakout → Emotion is confirmed;

Historical cases have proven that the market will react in advance to changes in expectations.

Of course, the current market does not possess the certainty of a long-term bull market like in 2020, but as history has told us multiple times: as long as sentiment and structure resonate, it is worth going with the trend.

The market is not driven by faith, but by constant adjustments and continuous following. You don't need to bet on how high it will rise, just need to understand what it is saying.