Crypto Market Macro Research Report: US-China Policy Resonance Boosts Bitcoin to New Heights

1. Macroeconomic Background: Policy Easing and Market Sentiment Shift

In May 2025, our country's central bank implemented a "dual reduction" policy, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. This move not only has a profound impact on traditional financial markets but also brings potential opportunities for the crypto market and the Web3 ecosystem. At the same time, the expectations for high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US are positive, further driving the global risk appetite sentiment.

The central bank's "double reduction" policy has conveyed the signal that the monetary easing cycle has arrived, and market liquidity will be released. The expectations for the warming of China-US economic and trade relations have significantly increased, leading to a general rise in the prices of risk assets, especially in the crypto market. The rise of risk assets such as Bitcoin is a direct reflection of the shift in market sentiment.

The significant increase in global liquidity has driven up risk appetite in international markets. Asian stock markets have risen, commodity prices are climbing, and traditional market investors are seeking new opportunities in the crypto market. The fixed supply and anti-inflation properties of Bitcoin make it a long-term store of value.

The Federal Reserve's policy direction has become a focal point. Despite the ongoing expansion of the US economy, the dual pressures of high inflation and high unemployment are challenging its monetary policy. Weaker expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a stronger dollar, profoundly affecting global capital flows. However, demand for crypto assets has not declined; instead, there is a renewed interest in "digital gold" as a safe-haven asset.

Overall, the resonance between China and U.S. policies and the shift in market sentiment will have a profound impact on global capital markets, particularly the crypto market. Investors need to maintain flexible strategies by adopting a "core + satellite" investment portfolio, using Bitcoin as a digital gold for fundamental allocation, and paying attention to Web3 projects with practical application scenarios.

2. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: Price Approaches $100,000

Bitcoin is showing a strong upward trend in 2025, repeatedly approaching the historical psychological barrier of 100,000 USD. The driving forces behind the rise include the resonance of macro policy background, structural evolution within the encryption industry, and the bidirectional game of emotions and expectations.

The characteristic of this round of increase is that institutional investors have become the dominant force. Large asset management institutions are laying out Bitcoin spot ETFs, pushing it towards institutionalized allocation on the right track. Financial products related to encryption assets are increasingly abundant in places like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Europe, with improved regulatory transparency, allowing Bitcoin to enter more traditional capital pools in a compliant manner.

The logic of supply-side scarcity continues to amplify Bitcoin's value anchoring ability. The fourth halving event in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 coins, greatly compressing new supply. On the demand side, there is exponential growth driven by multiple factors such as the listing of ETFs, central bank purchases, and sovereign fund allocations. The asymmetry of the supply-demand structure constitutes the fundamental support for the medium to long-term price increase.

However, the market still experiences significant emotional fluctuations and technical adjustments. Whale accounts concentrating on trading, algorithms, and arbitrage games lead to sharp short-term pullbacks. Some old capital takes the opportunity to distribute, combined with retail investors' "fear of heights" sentiment, triggering a phase of correction. The market structure is transitioning from early belief-type users to mainstream incremental users.

The media widely promotes the historical significance of Bitcoin approaching $100,000, creating a strong "FOMO effect," but it also brings typical "bubble expectations." Short-term funds exhibit excessive speculation, and the concentration of high-leverage users in trading can easily trigger a cascading liquidation.

Overall, Bitcoin approaching 100,000 USD represents its leap in positioning within the global capital system. Under the framework of de-dollarization, a resurgence of risk aversion, and institutional capital entering the market, Bitcoin has become a strategic asset in the new round of global wealth redistribution. Although there are risks of short-term adjustments, there is still room for growth in the medium to long term.

3. Development of the Web3 Ecosystem: Driven by Policies and Technology

The Web3 ecosystem is entering a new development cycle, gradually evolving into a foundational architecture for global digital governance, cross-border collaboration, and the value internet. Three major forces—policy guidance, technological innovation, and application expansion—are driving Web3 from concept to large-scale implementation.

1. Policy Support

The attitude of the United States towards cryptocurrency and Web3 policy is shifting from "regulatory suppression" to "strategic acceptance". New Hampshire has passed the "Bitcoin Reserve Bill", requiring a portion of the state government's financial reserves to be held in Bitcoin. This marks Bitcoin being viewed as "digital gold" with long-term value storage capability in certain jurisdictions.

Multiple state governments are in the early stages of "policy competition," advancing experimental legislation for encryption mining, on-chain finance, and smart contract compliance. At the federal level, the "Financial Innovation and Technology Future Act" is being promoted, defining mainstream digital assets as "non-security commodities" and pushing for the establishment of a unified regulatory framework.

The transformation in the United States has an "externality effect," driving other countries or regional markets to "policy follow." Countries like the UK, South Korea, and Japan are beginning to re-examine the compliance mechanisms for stablecoins and are accelerating the opening of Web3 "regulatory sandboxes."

2. Technical Progress

Modular blockchain and foundational technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs have entered the practical stage, enhancing the performance, composability, and privacy protection capabilities of Web3 networks. ZK-rollup, as a core solution for Ethereum Layer 2, has entered the large-scale deployment phase. Cutting-edge cross-domain fields such as ZKML are showing potential in on-chain model verification and off-chain data compliance calls.

The MCP-like protocol that integrates AI and Web3 is taking shape, with the process of training, calling, and validating AI models being brought on-chain. These new paradigm technologies are breaking through the bottlenecks of "high Gas fees, low interactivity, and weak privacy protection" in the original Web3 system.

3. Application Scenario Expansion

In the field of cross-border payments, small and medium-sized export enterprises and digital service providers are beginning to use stablecoins for direct settlement, avoiding the issues of exchange rate fluctuations and the low efficiency of traditional financial system transfers. In emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, Web3 payments have become a practical trend.

Digital identity authentication has become an important breakthrough for the implementation of Web3. On-chain verifiable identity systems are integrated into DAO governance, DePIN device access, cross-chain credit assessment, and other aspects, addressing the fundamental questions of "who is the user" and "who owns the data."

The Web3 ecosystem is driven by three types of "application forces": the upgrade demands of traditional industries through "chain reform", the evolution of native encryption demands, and the cultural resonance of global youth and developer communities for free collaboration and value sovereignty.

4. Risk Factors and Investment Strategies

Despite the strong growth trend of the Web3 ecosystem and the Bitcoin market, investors still need to pay attention to potential risks:

1. Uncertainty in the direction of global interest rate policies
2. Regulatory disturbances still constitute significant external variables
3. Technical risks cannot be ignored
4. Structural differentiation in the market may lead to periodic bubbles.

Investment strategy recommendations:

• For those with a lower risk appetite: allocate Bitcoin as a "crypto market asset anchor" for the long term.
• Growth seekers: Focus on projects in the infrastructure track that have real application landing, an active developer ecosystem, and a clear protocol upgrade path.
• Operating strategy: Use methods such as phased building of positions, rolling adjustments, and setting profit and loss thresholds for dynamic management.
• Project selection: Strengthen the consideration of "policy sensitivity" dimensions, prioritize the layout of emerging projects that grow under a clear compliance trend.

5. Conclusion

In the first half of 2025, the crypto market enters a new structural bull cycle driven by multiple factors. Bitcoin prices approach the $100,000 mark, and the Web3 ecosystem exhibits a "dual resonance pattern from technology to system." However, uncertainties in policy, regulatory unpredictability, market speculation, and technical security risks still exist. Investors should maintain calm judgment in the midst of structural prosperity, following a strategy that combines value-driven, policy-oriented, and safety baseline logic to seize the core dividends of the next stage.