The Year Wheel Theory of Human Culture and Politics: Examining Sino-U.S. Differences from the Perspective of AI Competition Landscape

Recently, a well-known figure in the industry published an article proposing a novel viewpoint called the "Cultural and Political Year Ring Model" and used it to interpret the current global landscape of artificial intelligence and technology regulation. This theory suggests that the cultural attitude towards new things is shaped by the social atmosphere at the time of their formation, while the attitude towards old things is determined by inherent inertia. Once these "cultural year rings" are formed, they become extremely difficult to change.

The Contradiction Between the Ideals and Reality of Neoliberalism

The author reflects on a confusion during their growth process in the article: although society generally believes that we live in an environment of "deep neoliberalism" and "deregulation," in reality, government regulatory policies are quite different from these concepts. In fact, the number of federal regulations has not decreased but rather increased, and various control measures are continuously being strengthened. Furthermore, since World War II, the proportion of federal tax revenue to GDP in the United States has remained relatively stable.

The Unexpected Turnaround in the Sino-US AI Competitive Landscape

The article points out that if one were to predict the development pattern of China and the United States in the field of AI five years after 2020, most people might think that the U.S. would lead in open-source AI, while China would dominate in closed-source AI. However, the reality is quite the opposite. The "Annual Ring Model" proposed by the author provides an explanation for this phenomenon:

1. The attitude of culture towards new things depends on the social atmosphere at the time of its formation.
2. The attitude of culture towards old things is mainly driven by current prejudices.
3. Each era will form new rings on the cultural "tree", representing concepts of emerging things.
4. Once these concepts are formed, they will quickly solidify and be difficult to change.

From the Internet to AI: How Cultural Inertia Affects Technology Regulation

The author analyzes the evolution of technology regulation in the United States and China through the "year ring model":

1. The United States experienced a peak of deregulation in the 1990s, which allowed the Internet to maintain a relatively open characteristic.
2. The level of taxation is determined by government budgetary needs, forming a fiscal "red line" that is difficult to change.
3. The attitude towards risks associated with emerging technologies is often more cautious than that towards traditional extreme sports, reflecting the cultural attitudes formed during different periods.
4. Social media is regarded as part of the internet, but it is also treated as a new phenomenon, thus the regulatory attitudes vary.
5. China has adopted a strategy of "complementary advantages of commercial competitors" in the AI field, promoting the development of open-source AI.

The Power of Innovation: Planting New Trees is More Effective than Changing Old Trees

The article emphasizes that it is very difficult to change entrenched cultural concepts. In contrast, creating new behavioral patterns and establishing good norms and cultural foundations at the outset is more feasible. This is precisely the charm of the cryptocurrency and Web3 fields: they provide an independent technological and cultural environment that can be free from existing biases and explore new things freely.

The author believes that we should focus on "planting and cultivating new tree species" rather than trying to change those entrenched old concepts. This line of thinking provides a fresh perspective for technological innovation and social change.