Real Vision analysts: A weaker dollar supports bitcoin bullishness, and the odds are increasingly tilting in favor of unleveraged holders

According to Cointelegraph, Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said that a weaker dollar could be positive for Bitcoin, but two indicators are still worrying in the short term. "While the dollar plunge has shifted my frame to bullishness, two indicators of Treasury volatility (MOVE index ) and corporate bond spreads remain alarming," Coutts noted. ”

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to a four-month low of 103.85 on March 10, according to Market Watch data. Coutts explained that the increased volatility of U.S. Treasuries as global collateral leads to lower collateral valuations, which in turn tightens liquidity. He observed that the MOVE index is currently stable but on an upward trend, while corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks, and historically significant corporate bond spread reversals have tended to coincide with Bitcoin price peaks.

Still, Coutts sees the dollar's depreciation – March was one of the largest in 12 years – as the main driver in his framework. Other bullish factors include the global scramble to build a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor's Strategy set to add another 10-200,000 BTC this year, a potential doubling of spot ETF holdings, and increased liquidity. He likened Bitcoin to a "high-risk game" with central banks, and "as they have fewer options — assuming coin holders remain unleveraged — the odds are increasingly tilting in favor of Bitcoin holders." ”