Bitcoin rollercoaster: Why is every rally followed by a sharp drop?
Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold onto gains over the past few weeks, giving up nearly all of those gains after gains. According to cryptocurrency analyst and trader Daan Foppen, this phenomenon can be attributed to the huge influence of the futures market on the price movement of Bitcoin.
Foppen noted that the bitcoin spot market, where investors buy and sell actual BTC, has been mostly selling lately, as evidenced by the downward trend in spot market prices. In contrast, the rise in bitcoin prices has been largely driven by activity in the futures market, where traders use leverage to speculate on the future price of BTC.
When futures dominate trading, the underlying spot market struggles to keep up. Price increases outpaced actual buying demand for Bitcoin, leaving the market vulnerable to sudden reversals once futures purchasing power subsidizes. This concept has been clearly shown on the Bitcoin price chart over the past month, with the initial price surge quickly fading away.
Additionally, according to Daan Foppen, Bitcoin’s recent volatility and price reversals have been largely driven by leveraged trading and liquidations in the futures market. According to Foppen, the cryptocurrency’s price action over the past few weeks has been characterized by upward and downward “impulse moves” that appear powerful but lack strength and sustainability.
For example, Bitcoin's rise to $27,400 on May 23 was largely driven by short liquidation, as over-leveraged short positions were liquidated, creating an upward "snowball effect." The subsequent sharp decline was likewise due to the liquidation of long positions opened during the consolidation period in anticipation of a higher price.
Additionally, Foppen noted that interest in bitcoin futures has risen, indicating increased leveraged trading activity. However, it is difficult to determine whether the new positions are mainly short or long. The funding rate, which indicates whether bulls or bears are paying interest to balance the market, has risen slightly recently but remains near the baseline.
However, Foppen believes that the factors for a “deeper decline” in bitcoin prices are already in place as the most recent positions are likely to be mostly long. "What you shouldn't be doing now is blindly clicking short buttons," he warned.
With highly leveraged and volatile dynamics currently driving bitcoin’s price action, Foppen warned that these are “very fluid situations” and that protecting one’s capital should be a trader’s top priority. "What you especially shouldn't be doing is allowing yourself to be chopped up in this market," he said.
BTC is currently trading at $26,209, down more than 3% over the past 24 hours. However, the market's largest cryptocurrency could halt its potential continuation downtrend at the 200-day moving average at $24,900, which could act as a threshold for bulls.
(Data source: Ronaldo Marquez)