Abstract

• Fantom ranked among the top five public chains in March 2022, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) peaking at nearly USD 8 billion—eight times the current peak of Sonic.

• Within just three months of its mainnet launch, Sonic’s TVL has surged nearly 40x, reaching close to $1 billion, placing it 12th among public chains with a 1.07% market share.

• While Sonic’s weekly transaction count is around 51% of Fantom’s peak and its DEX trading volume stands at 16.9% of Fantom’s peak (ranking 7th among public chains), user engagement and trading depth are still in early stages and require further growth.
• At its peak, Fantom’s top four native protocols accounted for nearly 65% of its TVL. In contrast, Sonic’s TVL is currently driven mainly by cross-chain protocols like Aave and Silo. The local ecosystem remains underdeveloped, indicating the need for stronger protocol diversification and incubation of homegrown flagship projects.
• Sonic’s “triangle strategy” (Lombard + Ether.fi + Rings) combines restaking and stablecoins as dual growth drivers. In just three months, the total stablecoin market cap on Sonic reached $500 million. Since early 2025, Sonic has attracted a net inflow of $1.3 billion, ranking 2nd among public blockchains over the same period—demonstrating robust capital absorption capabilities (as of April 7, 2025).

• While $FTM once achieved a 190x price increase, the recent peak for $S is only around 2x, significantly underperforming Fantom’s last cycle. The incentive-driven wealth effect remains weak and needs improvement.
• Based on an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) evaluation (Sonic scored 6.5/10) and Logistic Regression Model (with a 68.2% probability of replicating Fantom’s success), Sonic shows moderate potential under present conditions.

• Monte Carlo simulations indicate that if capital inflows double and a bull market emerges, the probability of successfully replicating Fantom’s trajectory could reach as high as 82%. In a neutral scenario, the probability ranges from 65% to 70%, while in a pessimistic case (capital outflows), it drops to just 35%. The market outlook largely depends on the sustainability of capital inflows and the pace of ecosystem development.

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