XRP ETF Approval Potential Surge Past 83%
As of May 19, 2025, the market XRP The approval expectation of spot ETF continues to rise. According to forecasting platform Polymarket data, the probability of XRP ETF passing by the end of 2025 has increased to 83%, and Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has further raised this probability to 85%. Behind this optimistic sentiment is a significant change in the regulatory environment, accelerated layout of institutional funds, and the potential breakthrough of Ripple’s legal disputes.
Regulatory relaxation: From legal games to policy shifts
The approval process of XRP ETF is deeply intertwined with Ripple’s long-term legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After Ripple partially won the lawsuit in 2023, the SEC’s legal characterization of XRP gradually shifted from “securities” to “commodities”, a key transition further confirmed in March 2025. An internal SEC report indicates that XRP may be classified as a commodity on par with Bitcoin and Ethereum, thereby clearing the core obstacles to ETF approval.
At the same time, the change in the leadership of the SEC has become another catalyst. The appointment of the new SEC chairman, Paul Atkins, marks a shift in the regulatory agency’s attitude towards cryptocurrency from “defensive scrutiny” to “strategic adoption”. This policy shift is directly reflected in the recent withdrawal of SEC Uniswap Wait for the platform’s accusations and expedite the processing of the cryptocurrency ETF applications.
Market dynamics: institutional layout and expected capital inflows
Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, the demand from institutions for cryptocurrency allocation has surged. As of May 2025, 9 institutions including Grayscale, 21Shares, and VanEck have submitted applications for XRP spot ETFs, with Franklin Templeton’s application review milestone set for June 17, seen as a key indicator.
The market also has strong expectations for capital inflows. JPMorgan predicts that if the XRP ETF is approved, it may attract institutional funds of 3 to 8 billion USD in the first year, driving its market value to hit the milestone of 200 billion USD (currently 140 billion USD). This expectation echoes the historical performance of Bitcoin ETF—after the Bitcoin ETF was listed in 2024, its price surged over 120% within 6 months.
It is worth noting that the introduction of leveraged XRP ETFs has injected confidence into the market. In April 2025, Teucrium launched the 2x leveraged XRP ETF (XXRP), with a first-day trading volume exceeding $5 million, making it one of the best-performing new ETFs in the U.S. derivatives market. Although the product focuses on short-term trading, its success validates the market’s demand for XRP financial instruments.
Technical and Price Catalysts: Breaking Through the Key Resistance at $3
From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently stable in the $2.30 - $2.40 range, with the MACD indicator showing a bullish crossover and the RSI maintaining near 60, indicating that the market has not yet entered overbought territory. If it breaks through the short-term resistance at $2.65, the price is expected to challenge the $3.00 psychological level and further approach the historical high of $3.84.
Key time points have also become potential catalysts:
- May 22, 2025: SEC closed-door meeting may involve discussions on settlement terms of the Ripple case;
- June 17, 2025: Final review period for Franklin XRP ETF;
- October 18, 2025: SEC deadline for final decision on multiple XRP ETF applications.
Risks and Uncertainties: Legal Variables and Market Volatility
Despite the optimistic outlook, XRP ETF still faces two major risks:
- Legal uncertainties: If the settlement between Ripple and the SEC is not reached as scheduled, or unexpected twists in court rulings occur, it may delay the ETF approval process;
- Market fluctuations: Bitcoin price The high correlation may amplify the volatility of XRP. In early 2025, when Bitcoin retraced 25%, XRP fell by 18% in sync, highlighting its vulnerability.
Conclusion: The mainstreaming tipping point of the crypto market
The potential approval of XRP ETF is not only a turning point for the Ripple ecosystem, but also a milestone for the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system. With the breakdown of regulatory barriers and the entry of institutional funds, XRP is expected to replicate the ‘ETF effect’ of Bitcoin, opening a new growth cycle in liquidity enhancement and valuation restructuring. As Bloomberg analysts put it, ‘This is not just the approval of a product, but also a signal of the legalization of the crypto market.’
